RJ Kesari News Desk: Major dairy brands, including Amul, Mother Dairy, and regional milk producers, are closely monitoring weather conditions as concerns grow over possible disruptions to milk production and supply.

El Niño Could Impact Milk Production Across Key Dairy Regions

The expected arrival of El Niño is likely to bring higher temperatures and below-normal rainfall in several parts of the country. Such weather conditions can significantly affect the availability of green fodder, which is essential for maintaining milk production among dairy animals.

A shortage of fodder and water often forces farmers to reduce livestock numbers, ultimately lowering milk output. As supply tightens and production costs rise, consumers may have to pay more for milk and dairy products.

Industry officials believe that if rainfall remains weak during the monsoon season, milk prices could witness another increase by July or August 2026.

Milk Prices Already Increased in May

Milk consumers have already felt the impact of rising costs this year. Just a few weeks ago, leading dairy companies increased retail milk prices by around 2-3 percent, adding pressure to household budgets.

Major dairy brands, including Amul, Mother Dairy, and Parag Milk Foods, implemented price revisions in May due to rising procurement and operational expenses.

At the same time, state-owned dairy brand Aavin in Tamil Nadu reportedly reduced milk supplies in some areas amid extreme heat conditions, highlighting the challenges faced by the dairy sector during prolonged periods of high temperatures.

Further Price Hike of Up to 4% Possible

According to Devendra Shah, Chairman of Parag Milk Foods, milk prices have already increased by around 2-3 percent and could rise by another 3-4 percent if rainfall remains below normal in major milk-producing regions.

He noted that weather conditions play a crucial role in determining milk production levels and dairy input costs. Lower rainfall can increase the cost of cattle feed, water management, and overall dairy operations, eventually leading to higher retail prices.

If monsoon performance remains weak, consumers may see another upward revision in milk prices within the next few months.

Maharashtra Government Issues Advisory to Farmers

Recognizing the potential risks posed by El Niño, the Maharashtra Government has advised livestock farmers to increase fodder cultivation and prepare for possible shortages.

Several dairy companies have also begun working with farmers to improve fodder management and ensure adequate feed availability during the upcoming months.

According to Kiran Patil, Maharashtra's Animal Husbandry Commissioner, the possibility of a future fodder shortage cannot be ignored if weather conditions deteriorate further.

He urged farmers to take preventive measures now to protect livestock health and maintain stable milk production levels.

What Amul Says About Possible Milk Price Increase

Officials at Amul have indicated that the cooperative is currently assessing the progress of the monsoon before taking any decision on future milk pricing.

According to Jayen Mehta, Managing Director of the Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation (GCMMF), which markets the Amul brand, there is no immediate concern regarding milk availability.

He explained that the effects of low rainfall are often localized and do not necessarily impact milk production across the entire country. Amul plans to closely monitor weather developments before considering any further price adjustments.

Mother Dairy Closely Monitoring Procurement Areas

Mother Dairy has also stated that it is keeping a close watch on conditions across its milk procurement network.

Managing Director Jayathirtha Chari said the company is actively monitoring developments on a state-by-state basis and implementing preventive measures wherever necessary to minimize disruptions.

The company aims to ensure stable milk procurement while protecting both dairy farmers and consumers from potential supply shocks.

Why El Niño Matters for Milk Prices

The dairy industry is highly dependent on favorable weather conditions. Adequate rainfall supports fodder production, maintains water availability, and helps farmers manage livestock efficiently.

When rainfall declines due to weather events like El Niño, dairy farmers face higher costs and lower productivity, which often leads to increased milk prices.

As India enters the critical monsoon season, the performance of rainfall over the next few weeks will play a key role in determining whether consumers face another round of dairy inflation.

Consumers May Need to Brace for Higher Dairy Costs

While no immediate nationwide shortage has been reported, industry experts believe that prolonged weak rainfall could push milk prices higher in the second half of the year.

For millions of households already dealing with rising living costs, another increase in milk prices could further impact monthly budgets. The final outcome will largely depend on monsoon performance, fodder availability, and milk production trends across key dairy-producing states.

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